Heading Towards the Iceberg – The Mental Health Service’s Response to The Grenfell Fire

‘Three quarters of those living closest to the Grenfell Tower are suffering from PTSD, with 40% suffering in buildings a little further away’ (BBC Radio 4 December 14th 2017). But these figures from Grenfell Health and Wellbeing are highly improbable, numerous studies of responses to natural disasters show the incidence of PTSD is 30-40% amongst direct victims of disaster  and 5-10% in the general population [ Galea et al (2005)]. The rampant overdiagnosis of PTSD opens up the prospect of swathes people enduring trauma focussed CBT (or EMDR) quite unnecessarily. The spectre of inappropriate help rivals the sight of the Tower.

This gross overdiagnosis has come about because counsellors have gone door to door, ‘if they thought it appropriate’ the questions on a PTSD screening questionnaire  were asked and using a cut off a diagnosis of PTSD was made. This method on its’ own is highly unreliable, a screen has to be followed by a reliable standardised diagnostic interview  to establish true prevalence.

The interviewed clinician claimed that their approach was a ‘first’, but actually it is reminiscent oF IAPT’s approach to assessment, resulting in a treatment, that by my independent assessment, has a 10% recovery rate -‘the tip of the iceberg respond’.



The mental health services are it seems like the like the Titanic heading towards the iceberg, hopefully unlike the crew they will heed warnings and take a new direction.

 Galea et al (2005) ‘The Epidemiology of PTSD After Disasters’ in Epidemiological Reviews


Dr Mike Scott




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